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NEW REPORTS DISCUSS H-1B VISA PROGRAM
Two new reports issued by think tanks discuss various aspects of the H-1B visa program. The Employment Policy Foundation in Washington has this month issued a report entitled “The H-1B Cap Will Move Jobs Overseas.” EPF is funded by private corporations many of whom are in the Fortune 500.  The report is downloadable at http://www.epf.org/documents/sf20000412.html. 
The EPF conducted a survey and found that over one-third of companies will be forced to outsource jobs overseas or cease expanding if they are not able to locate qualified workers. The survey also found the following: 
-         H-1B user companies submitted an average of 84 applications in 1999 
-         User companies hired an average of 48 new H-1B workers 
-         If there was not a cap, nearly two-thirds would have hired an average of 13 more H-1B workers 
-         The majority of H-1B petitioners would hire more H-1B workers in 2000 than in 1999. 
-         The average company with H-1B employees had 106 such workers in their workforce 
-         81 percent of H-1B employers are likely to recruit workers from outside the US in the next five years in order to meet the need for workers 
-         More than one-third of H-1B firms would consider moving or outsourcing work abroad if H-1B workers are not available for domestic operations. 
The report concludes by stating that without a flexible work visa program, tight labor markets will threaten economic expansion. 
On April 17, 2000, the Institute for the Study of International Migration at Georgetown University released a report entitled “H-1B Temporary Workers: Estimating the Population>”. The report is authored by Lindsay Lowell who formerly served on the US Commission on Immigration Reform. The Institute at Georgetown is headed by Susan Martin who served as the director of the US Commission on Immigration Reform. The Commission was highly controversial for making many recommendations that eventually were adopted in the 1996 Immigration Act. The funding for the paper came from the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers – USA which has long been largely critical of the H-1B program and has strongly lobbied against any quota increases. The report can be downloaded at http://www.ieeeusa.org/grassroots/immreform/h1breport.pdf. 
The report attempts to calculate the number of H-1B visa holders in the US and to estimate usage if the H-1B cap is increased. The authors estimate that there are currently 425,000 H-1B visa holders in the in the United States. By next year, that population should reach 460,000 due to the 1998 visa cap increase. 
If no legislation passes this year to raise the H-1B cap, the total H-1B population will begin to decline as the cap rolls back to 65,000 per year. However, if the Hatch H-1B bill passes in the Senate, the H-1B population in the US would rise to 710,000 in 2002 and then would decline to 270,000 by 2010 assuming that the H-1B cap goes back to 65,000 after the Hatch bill expires. If the Hatch bill is extended in the future, the population could rise to 800,000. 
The report also estimates that 74,000 H-1B visa holders will apply for adjustment of status in 2004 if the Hatch bill is passed. With per country quotas, the report predicts that a large number of people will remain in the US illegally waiting for visa numbers to become current.