NATION’S POPULATION WILL DOUBLE IN NEXT CENTURY, IN PART DUE TO IMMIGRATION, PREDICTS CENSUS BUREAU

According statistics recently released by the US Census Bureau, by 2100 the US population could reach 571 million, more than double the 273 million estimated in the middle of 1999.  This number is based on middle of the road assumptions about population growth.  The Bureau also came up with lowest and highest predictions, based on different assumptions about population growth.  The lowest estimate projects the 2100 population at 283 million, and the highest predicts a population of 1.2 billion.  While 571 million people in the US seems a huge number, the US would still have a population density only one-quarter that of the United Kingdom.

One of the primary assumptions behind the Census Bureau numbers is that immigration will remain at close to current levels.  Trends have indicated that among the native born population, childbearing rates are only that needed to replace the population as it ages.  However, according to Census Bureau analyst Frederick W. Hollmann, “the increasing number of potential parents and continued migration from abroad would be sufficient to add nearly 300 million people during the next century.”

The age and origin of the predicted immigrants would create a significant shift in the racial and ethnic makeup of the US.  Whites in the US currently account for 72% of the population; by 2050 this could decline to 53%.  Hispanics would likely overtake African-Americans as the largest minority group in the country, with African-Americans representing 15% of the population in 2050, and Hispanics almost 25%. 

The statistics also demonstrate that there could be an increase in the number of foreign-born people in the US population, both in actual numbers and as a percent of the overall population.  Their number is predicted to rise from 26 million today to 53.8 million in 2050, an increase from 10% to 13% of the population.  If the statistics on the aging of the population are correct, immigration may be necessary to provide a large enough workforce to support increasing numbers of elderly people, especially given that the native-born population is fairly stable.  Today there are 34.6 million people over 65 – by 2050 this number could be 82 million.  The aging of the population will be especially noticeable between 2011 and 2030 when the “baby boomers,” those born between 1946 and 1964, turn 65.  Over this period, the number of people over 65 is predicted to rise from 13% to 20% of the population.