CAMPAIGN 2000

This year the Republican Party ran the most immigrant friendly campaign in its history, with Texas Gov. George W. Bush running Spanish language ads and speaking Spanish at rallies. Despite these efforts, Vice-President Al Gore won the Hispanic vote by a landslide. Data cited by ABC and CNN showed the Hispanic vote 62% for Gore and 35% for Bush. CBS data showed an even stronger showing for Gore, with 66%, and only 29% for Bush. Statistics show that Bush easily won among non-Hispanic whites, getting 54% of the vote to Gore’s 42%. In Bush’s home state of Texas, Bush did win 54% of the Hispanic vote to Gore’s 42%, but this is not close to the margin by which he carried the state, getting 73% of the vote from non-Hispanic whites, only 24% of whom voted for Gore. In California, Gore defeated Bush among Hispanic voters by a 75% to 23% margin. In New York, Gore won 80% of the Hispanic vote to Bush’s 18%. In the crucial state of Florida, Bush did win the Hispanic vote, but by the incredibly narrow margin of 50% to 48%. Many of Florida’s Hispanics are Cuban-Americans who tend to vote overwhelmingly Republican.

Hispanics made up seven percent of those who voted, a percentage that is expected only to grow as the Hispanic population in the US grows.

Asian American voters also tended to vote more for Democrats than Republicans. A survey of Asian American voters in the Los Angeles area showed that 62% of them voted for Gore, while only 35% voted for Bush, numbers that were similar across the state. Asian Americans have historically been among the more conservative immigrant groups, but recent events may have changed that perception, notably the Wen Ho Lee scandal. Dr. Lee worked at the Los Alamos National Lab until he was caught in a spy scandal. The government charged him with 59 counts related to espionage, but recently dropped all but one count in a plea bargain. Researchers point to this as a motivating factor in Asian Americans moving to the Democratic party. Even though it was a Democratic administration that targeted Lee, Asian Americans still see the party as more sensitive to important issues such as discrimination and immigration.

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Senator Spencer Abraham (R-MI), the Chair of the Senate Immigration Subcommittee and a major supporter of business immigration legislation, was defeated in one of the closest Senate elections this year. The victor was Rep. Debbie Stabenow, who spent two terms in the House representing Michigan. Despite being the incumbent, and having more money to spend on the election, Abraham was not able to overcome a perceived lack of charisma. Another factor in his defeat was the large number of ads against his immigration positions run by anti-immigration groups.

The Republicans will still control the House, although by an incredibly narrow margin. As things currently stand, there are 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats, 2 independents, and one remaining undecided race in Maryland. In the Senate, things are much the same. There are 50 Republicans and 49 Democrats, with one remaining undecided race in Washington. What this means for the immigration committees in each house as yet remains unknown. Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD), the Minority Leader, would like to see increased power sharing on the committees as a reflection of the close divide. However, it is likely that the chairs will continue to be Republican. There is a chance that Rep. Lamar Smith will be moving on, so the chair of the House Immigration Subcommittee will be vacant. In most cases, the chair goes to someone already on the committee. Current Republican members of the House Immigration Subcommittee are Elton Gallegly from California, Ed Pease from Indiana, Charles Canady from Florida, Bob Goodlatte from Virginia and Joe Scarborough, also from Florida. Bill McCollum, who did sit on the Subcommittee, lost his bid for election to the Senate. The chair of the Senate Immigration Subcommittee will definitely be changing with the defeat of Abraham. Current Republicans on the Subcommittee are Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, Charles Grassley of Iowa and Jon Kyl of Arizona.

Because of the closeness of the presidential election, and the evenly divided power in Congress, significant changes in immigration policy are unlikely. Should Gore end up winning the election, chances are slim that he would be able to make any changes because of the Republican controlled Congress. Should Bush be declared the winner, however, he might feel the need to reach out to Gore voters, including Hispanics.

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Theoretically, George W. Bush, if elected president, would require special permission to enter Canada because of his conviction for drunk driving. Under Canadian immigration law, George W. Bush is considered inadmissible. However, because the conviction is more than five years old, he will be able to obtain a waiver by going through a rehabilitation process. Along with completing an actual rehabilitation class, Bush would also have to obtain letters from friends saying that he has reformed, and present evidence that he has accepted responsibility for his act and has changed his life. This embarrassing process can be avoided by paying a large fine at the border. Al Gore would also face a similar situation because of his past admission to smoking marijuana. According to Canadian attorney Darryl Larson "If you admit to having smoked marijuana, you have admitted to an unlawful act. That would allow reasonable grounds for our immigration officers to determine that you have broken a law that, if committed in Canada, would be subject to prosecution and therefore falls under this law."

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Pat Buchanan, the Reform Party candidate who garnered less than one percent of the popular vote, has vowed that he will continue to move the Reform Party to the right, despite the loss of federal election matching funds because of his poor showing. In his continued crusade his major platforms will remain support for a ban on abortion, opposition to free trade, and opposition to immigration.

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