 DEBATE CONTINUES OVER LEGALIZATION PROPOSALS
This week Secretary of State Colin Powell and Attorney General John Ashcroft met with their Mexican counterparts to continue discussions on migration. Following the two-hour meeting, Powell said that in formulating a coherent policy it is important for the US to heed “the enormously valuable role that Mexican immigrants continue to play in helping us build our nation.” Other participants spoke favorably about the talks, but declined to provide any specific details about the discussions.
Earlier in the week, aides in the Bush administration, during a meeting with immigration advocacy organizations, said that any moves would come only after consultation within the Republican Party. This almost certainly means that when Mexican President Vicente Fox visits Washington, D.C. next month, no firm plan will be announced. Instead, a statement of general principles is expected.
Indeed, unless President Bush is willing to make a break with many important members of his party, allowing some of them a voice on the issue could end any possibility of a legalization program. A number of key Republican legislators have made clear their opposition to any such program, preferring instead to focus on expanding temporary guest worker programs. Just this week Reps. James Sensenbrenner and George Gekas, the Chairs of the House Judiciary Committee and Immigration Subcommittee respectively, released a statement on immigration policy.
In the statement they said that no amnesty or guestworker program could be enacted until INS reform occurs. Noting that the 4.5 million applications currently pending with the INS are nine times the number pending when the 1986 amnesty went into effect, they say that it would be “foolish and unproductive” to make significant changes to immigration law at this point. According to the statement, comprehensive INS reform legislation is being drafted, and next fall hearings on the subject will begin.
One of the primary motivations behind the legalization talk is the strength of the US economy and its increasing dependence on immigrant workers, both legal and undocumented. Indeed, one of the biggest supporters of immigration reform is business, particularly those in industries where immigrant workers are essential. While business supports reform, another key Republican constituency, social conservatives, are adamantly opposed to reform.
Some opposed to an amnesty point to the aftermath of the 1986 amnesty as evidence no amnesty should be considered now. After that program, undocumented immigration from Mexico actually increased, from less than 600,000 a year to more than 800,000. However, demographers say that changes in the Mexican population could lead to a drastic reduction in migration to the US. In 1965 the average Mexican woman had seven children, today the average is 2.4. At the height of the population boom, Mexico would have needed to create one million new jobs a year to provide employment for everyone. It was not able to create more than 500,000, and many people went to the US looking for work. With a lower birth rate, the Mexican economy will likely be more able to provide jobs for everyone, decreasing migratory pressure.
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