 BUSH FLOATS AMNESTY PROPOSAL
This week immigration was a topic in major news outlets to an extent not seen since the Elian Gonzalez custody battle. News that the Bush administration might support an amnesty for undocumented Mexican workers swept across the nation, with the response one would have expected.
The week began with reports that the administration would support a full amnesty. These reports were quickly refuted on Monday, when Bush’s Press Secretary, Ari Fleischer, discussed the issue. Fleischer said that one of the proposals the working group of US and Mexican officials that is looking into immigration between the two countries is the creation of a new guest worker program that might provide a way to legalize the status of the estimated 3 million undocumented Mexican workers in the US. Fleischer said any proposal along these lines would not be an amnesty, insisting it would be a temporary worker program.
On Wednesday a group of Mexican senators spoke with a number of their US counterparts, urging them to support an amnesty. Silvia Hernandez, the president of the Mexican Senate’s North American Relations Committee said that they found the US senators to be open to the possibility of an amnesty program. Among others, they met with Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA), the chair of the Senate Immigration Subcommittee. Kennedy said that in their talks they discussed some possible specifics of the program. Some of the Mexican senators said the meetings convinced them that there is a growing recognition of the importance of Mexican workers to the US.
Speaking this week at the annual conference of the National Council of La Raza, the largest Hispanic advocacy organization in the US, Mexican President Vicente Fox urged Bush to “document and legalize” the status of undocumented Mexicans. Coming on Tuesday, just one day after the administration denied that it was considering an amnesty, some see Fox’s remarks as a challenge to Bush to overcome criticism on the issue from those within the Republican Party who oppose amnesty. Fox also said he wanted for Mexico to be exempt from visa quotas and for undocumented Mexicans to be able to obtain driver’s licenses.
Democratic leaders have, for the most part, applauded the administration, but say that any program, whether an amnesty or not, should not be limited to Mexicans, but should apply to all people, regardless of their nationality. Others express more skepticism about the proposal. Rep. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) criticized the proposal for its lack of detail. Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SA) also expressed concern that Bush might be pressured away from any legalization proposal by anti-immigration elements of the Republican Party. Indeed, Sen. Phil Gramm (R-TX), generally one of Bush’s strongest supporters, said a legalization program would be “very bad policy,” and would only reward those who broke the law in entering the US.
Many observers attribute Bush’s change of heart on the possibility of an amnesty to political needs. During the campaign, he came out firmly against not only amnesty but also any proposal that would legalize the status of people who came to the US illegally. However, his dismal performance among Hispanic voters (65% of whom voted for Al Gore) leads many to think he is trying to gain support among them with talk of an amnesty. Of course, if the proposal did end up benefiting only Mexicans, it could anger other Hispanic groups. The amnesty talk is also seen as part of Bush’s efforts to remake the image of the Republican Party as more immigrant friendly than it was during the 1990s.
Other events this week showed how difficult that might be. Even though opinions on amnesty are divided, there is widespread support for a guest worker program. Most supported a proposal introduced by Rep. Howard Berman (D-CA), but the success of that bill is now in doubt, following the introduction of a competing proposal by Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID). Craig’s proposal would allow agricultural workers who have worked 150 days over a 12-month period to apply for temporary residence. If they can then show that they have worked 150 days in four years of the six-year period that begins November 1, 2001, they can apply for permanent residence. Experts say it will be nearly impossible for people to qualify, because the average agricultural worker only works about 100 days a year.
Even among those who generally would support an amnesty, there are serious concerns. Perhaps most basic is that given the state of the INS, would the agency be capable of dealing with three million amnesty applications. The INS also has a history of making serious errors in amnesty programs. During the 1986 amnesty, many eligible people were rejected, leading to a number of lawsuits, some of which are still in the courts. Many human rights advocates are also concerned that talk of an amnesty will lead many to risk their lives trying to enter the US. They believe that an amnesty or legalization program should be part of an overall plan to deal with migration.
Whatever the proposal ends up as, it is expected that it will be before Congress by the time Bush meets with Mexican President Vicente Fox in September.
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