By Greg Siskind

The Democratic Party has won twice as many seats as needed to take over the US House of Representatives and seem to be in a position to take over the US Senate as well in a stunning defeat for the Republican Party. In January, the 100^th Congress will be sworn in and new leaders will be chosen to run committees which focus on immigration legislation.  

Immigration was set to be the Republicans secret political weapon this year, but a funny thing happened on the way to the election. While most Republicans promoted tough immigration positions that emphasized strong enforcement and an opposition to any kind of relief for undocumented immigrants, voters generally rejected this hard-line approach and supported candidates more likely to support comprehensive immigration reform proposals.  

While it is true that most voters considered Iraq to be their number one issue, the GOP expectation that enough anti-immigrant voters would be energized on this issue to block massive losses in Congress and in state and local races did not materialize. In fact, two public opinion polls taken just prior to the election confirm that trying to play the anti-immigrant card would not work this year. A Tarrance Group poll conducted for the National Immigration Forum found  

-          voters support immigration reform next year rather than waiting on enforcement to work first (50% to 37%)

-          voters see the border fence as a first step rather than a solution (48% to 28%)

-          voters supported a candidate who supported comprehensive immigration reform rather than one who only supports enforcement (57% to 37%)

-          voters believe a path to citizenship that involves paying a fine, working, paying taxes, living crime free and learning English is not "amnesty" (68% to 28%)  

In exit polls taken on Election Day, only one in three people cited immigration as being extremely important and of those only a narrow plurality viewed the Republicans as being better on the issue. Other polls conducted during the campaign actually showed the Democrats leading on that question. And nearly 6 in 10 voters believed undocumented immigrants should be offered a chance to get legal status.  

The most telling evidence of this is the fact that Tom Tancredo’s anti-immigrant  Immigration Reform Caucus (comprised of 101 Republicans and 2 Democrats) had a horrible evening yesterday. As many as 20 of its members will be gone in the next Congress.  

The rejection of the anti-immigrant message was seen in the overwhelming defeat of John Hostettler (R-IN), the chairman of the House Immigration Subcommittee. Hostettler lost 61% to 39%, a landslide by any definition. He made immigration his major issue and touted his record as rejecting any form of relief for the undocumented immigrant.  

Another high profile anti-immigrant Congressman to go down in defeat was J.D. Hayworth, the Arizona Republican who frequently is seen on national television discussing immigration. In another Arizona race, Randy Graf lost by a large margin to Gabrielle Giffords to take over the seat of Jim Kolbe. Graf, a Minuteman, not surprisingly took a number of extremely tough immigration positions including opposing US citizenship for children born in the US to non-citizens, opposition to earned legalization for undocumented immigrants, and supporting of the CLEAR Act, a bill with numerous provisions removing due process rights for immigrants.  

Kolbe noted that the anti-immigration strategy of Republicans like Graf was actually hurting the GOP. Kolbe told the Tucson Citizen newspaper "The focus on immigration hurt Republicans. They need to focus on key issues such as terrorism and economic growth."  

That’s not to say the message was totally one-sided. Arizona voters also approved several messages that limit rights for undocumented immigrants including  

• Prohibiting bail for those who commit felonies
• Barring undocumented immigrants from receiving punitive damages in civil lawsuits
• Requiring all official business to be conducted only in English
• Limiting access to public services

But Arizona voters’ support of these measures might be misread to indicate that voters have no interest in measures reforming the immigration system. In fact, voters appear to simultaneously support making it tougher to get into the country illegally and limiting rights for undocumented immigrants while at the same time supporting measures to make it possible for the undocumented to legalize their status. That is basically the position of Arizona ’s Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano who won re-election last night by a large margin despite strong opposition from the anti-immigrant right wing.  

The big news of this election, however, may be on how important the Latino vote is becoming in this country. 8% of voters in 2006 were Latino and the overwhelming majority of them punished the GOP and voted for the Democrats. Only 27% of Latino voters supported the Republicans compared to 40% in 2004. This change alone may have accounted for the margin of victory for many Democrats around the country. According to pollster Sergio Bendixen:  

I believe that the immigration issue had a lot to do with energizing the Hispanic electorate, making them a lot more interested in politics and a lot more willing to come out to the polls and participate in the electoral process, but also I think that many Hispanics have been offended by the tone of the debate in the Congress, by the reactionary solutions that have been proposed by many members of Congress and I think they blame the Republican party for the unfair way that issue has been handled and the way it has hurt the image of the Hispanic community nationally.  

So where does this leave immigration legislation? There is a possibility that Congress could take up at least some immigration legislation in the "lame duck" session that will start next Monday and go on for a few weeks after that. Pro-immigration groups have been pushing for passage of the SKIL Act during the interim session. This legislation would increase the number of H-1B visas and also make more employment-based permanent residency visas available. But the soon to be exiting House leadership will need to decide if it wants to move on this while it still has some power or pass on it until the Democrats take over.  

The 110^th House of Representatives is likely to have a much different attitude on immigration issues than the 109^th. For the last twelve years, the House Judiciary Committee and its Immigration Subcommittee have been chaired by a number of virulently anti-immigration Congressmen. House Judiciary Committee Chairman James Sensensbrenner’s name is synonymous with being anti-immigration and the combination of Hostettler and Sensenbrenner have ensured that very little pro-immigration legislation has passed in the last few years. This is the case even though the GOP overall is much less anti-immigrant than the Judiciary Committee. In fact, if a measure like the Senate’s comprehensive immigration reform bill were voted on by the entire House of Representatives, it would very possibly have passed.  

The election will have a less profound effect on the US Senate (assuming it changes hands as now appears likely). The US Senate’s Republican members have generally been moderate on immigration issues as was evidenced by its passage of the bipartisan immigration reform bill last may.  

Congresswoman Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-TX) is likely to take over the Immigration Subcommittee and John Conyers (R-MI) is set to be the next chair of the Judiciary Committee. Both are strongly pro-immigrant and have long track records on this issue. On the Senate side, it is less clear who will take over the relevant immigration committees, though the odds are quite good that the new chair will be strongly pro-immigration. Patrick Leahy is the likely Judiciary Committee Chair and Ted Kennedy, the current ranking Democrat on the Immigration Subcommittee, could be tapped to be in charge of immigration legislation. Nancy Pelosi will likely take on the position of Speaker of the House and Harry Reid will assume the position of Senate Majority Leader. Each has a strong record in support of comprehensive immigration reform.  

Expect comprehensive immigration reform legislation to be re-introduced early in the next Congress. The legislation could move quickly since Democrats will be able to get the bills easily passed in friendlier subcommittees and enough pro-immigration Republicans should sign on to pass the bills. President Bush has strongly pushed for a comprehensive immigration bill and Democratic leaders will likely be interested in passing something quickly that will not be vetoed by the President.  And the President is likely to see immigration reform as one of the few areas where he can enjoy success legislatively. It seems ironic that it will take a Democratic Congress to give Bush this victory.