1.     Openers

Dear Readers:

If the prognostications are correct, we’ll see a comprehensive immigration reform bill introduced in the Senate before the end of this month. Of course, the bill’s imminent introduction has been predicted for months so you can take this prediction with the proper level of skepticism.

But the mere introduction of the bill doesn’t mean that there is anywhere close to the level of support in Congress to pass it and despite encouraging words from the White House, it is far from clear the President is really serious about working for the bill’s passage.

For both political parties, the risks of guessing wrong on strategy are significant. For Democrats, Hispanics are a key constituency and many credit a large turnout and a significant shift in support toward the party as turning a number of races in the last two election cycles. If Hispanics shift that support to the Republicans or even just stay at home, they could lose a lot of close races.

On the other hand, pushing an immigration bill is never easy when unemployment is high and many Democrats are likely worried about how a pro-immigration vote will be perceived at home.

For Republicans, the choices are also tough. If the party votes in lockstep against immigration reform, they risk a generations long alienation of Hispanic voters, much as civil rights votes in the 1960s cost Republicans the support of African-Americans, a loss that persists today. The demographics of the country are such that the GOP cannot survive as a viable national party if it writes off another major ethnic group.

The GOP also risks the long term alienation of American employers who have traditionally been attracted to the GOP’s pro-business views. Xenophobic GOP members of Congress have not hesitated to launch in to attacks on businesses on the immigration issue and groups like the US Chamber of Commerce have been in the interesting position of siding with Democrats on the immigration issue.

For the GOP, the best of all worlds would be never having the immigration issue come up for a vote.

For Democrats and the President, the best scenario would be for the bill to pass especially if it passes with solid Democratic support. An energized Latino base would help to offset – probably more than offset – losses from Democratic voters who would switch parties on this issue.

But another good result would be for the bill to at least be voted on even if it fails. Democrats will get credit with Hispanics for at least trying. But another major effect of the vote would be to increase the chances of smaller immigration measures – some incredibly important – passing.

For the past few years, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus has made the strategically shrewd choice of blocking movement on all immigration bills until immigration reform gets a proper consideration. Democrats will likely not have the presidency and this large a majority in both houses of Congress for many years to come so it is understandable why the CHC is focused on pushing for action soon. If immigration reform fails, the CHC will be hard-pressed to continue this strategy and measures like the DREAM Act, AgJobs and legal immigration reform are likely to be taken up on their own.

The X Factor here is what the President will do. He’s been repeating the same thing he said with health care – that Congress needs to take the lead. But we know from that recent legislative success that it was not until President Obama took on the task of serious arm-twisting did the measure’s prospects improve.

I’ll be covering the bill’s introduction and will let readers know everything that’s in the bill as I’ve done in the past. Stay tuned.

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In this issue of the newsletter, we have an ABCs of Immigration article on the Visa Waiver Program. We’ve updated that article to include the recent inclusion of Greece on the list of eligible countries.

We also cover three recent Supreme Court cases that deal with immigration issues including a highly important decision mandating that criminal defense lawyers properly advise their clients on immigration consequences of various plea arrangements and verdicts.

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Finally, we remind readers that our law firm handles a broad array of immigration matters for clients in all 50 states. If you are interested in scheduling an appointment with me or one of my colleagues, please call my office at 901-682-6455.

Regards,

Greg Siskind