Dear Readers:

It’s difficult to find a positive pro-immigration spin to put on the election earlier this month. But perhaps one way to look at the situation is that we had reached a point where no progress on the immigration issue could be made in this country. Effectively, only one party has been interested in pro-immigration legislation and it is not possible to move any bill in the current political environment – immigration or not – that lacks at least some bipartisan support.

There are many explanations for why the GOP drifted from a place where there was an active pro-immigration wing to the one we find today. It certainly is clear, however, that the party has drifted to the right which has meant the silencing of pro-immigration Republicans.

The GOP took back the house and many state legislatures and gubernatorial seats because of anger that stems largely from the country’s precarious economic state. But the economy WILL improve and if the Republicans expect to be able to maintain a majority, they’re going to have to be able to attract voters in good times as well.

One of the ways they’ll be able to do that is to show that they offer solutions and not just protests. And public opinion polling for years has shown the public is moderate on immigration and wants practical solutions that involve better enforcement of our laws, a visa system that works well and a path to some kind of normal status for workers here illegally.

The other reason it’s good politics for the GOP to moderate on immigration is because eventually the Hispanic voting bloc will be so large that it will be impossible to have a Republican majority without at least appealing to a reasonable number of Latino voters. We’ve already seen how Hispanic voters can help the Democrats even in a Republican wave year. Majority Leader Harry Reid kept his Senate seat because of Latino votes and those voters also saved Democrats in Washington state, Colorado and California. It’s a matter of time before Texas is in the mix and if the Democrats can win over growing numbers of Latino voters in Texas, California, New York, Illinois and Florida, it's hard to see a way for Republicans to maintain a majority in the long run.

The grown ups in the GOP understand this and behind the scenes there is deep anxiety over this issue. That’s why I don’t agree with some pro-immigration colleagues who think we will not make any progress on immigration issues for at least the next several years. I do think we’ll start to see the re-emergence of pro-immigration voices in the GOP. It will probably start with measures that focus on legal immigration – a better functioning green card system, a guest worker program, etc.

Stay tuned.

In the mean time, the stage is being set for a vote on the DREAM Act in the lame duck session and it will be very, very close. In September, the DREAM Act got 56 votes. No Republicans voted for the measure, but a few objected on the grounds that they objected to the procedure used to get to the vote. Namely, that it was tacked on to a defense budget bill and there was little opportunity to debate the measure or vote on amendments. This time, the DREAM Act will be introduced as a standalone bill. The hope is that some moderate Republicans will vote yes and a few outgoing GOP Senators who have supported the DREAM Act in the past will not feel pressure to vote with the party. My sources are telling me the bill has a better than even chance of passing, but no one has yet to announce a vote switch so it’s still too soon to say. Nevertheless, we’ll likely know in the next two weeks where things stand.

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In firm news, I spoke this past week to the Council of State Restaurant Associations at the organization’s annual meeting in Savannah, Georgia. I discussed trends in state lawmaking on immigration.

I also wanted to welcome our new paralegal Lily Axelrod in our Memphis office. Lily is a Brown University graduate who most recently worked at the Mississippi Immigrant Rights Alliance. Welcome Lily!

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Readers are reminded that they are welcome to contact my law office if they would like to schedule a telephone or in person consultation with me or one of my colleagues. If you are interested, please call my office at 901-682-6455.

Regards,

Greg Siskind