The November 3rd election has provided definitive evidence that the Republican Party is in a major retreat on immigration matters. Republicans have been the sponsors of most of the anti-immigration bills of the past decade. That list includes the 1996 Immigration Act, Proposition 187 in California, and the 1996 Welfare Act. During this past session of Congress, however, Republicans have been trying to play down their anti-immigration positions. A number of bills were passed with Republican support reversing some of the harshest provisions of the 1996 Immigration Act and providing new forms of relief such as last year's Central American amnesty bill and the raising of the H-1B cap.

Republicans managed to blow what should have been one of their best elections in years. The President's party normally loses an average of 27 House seats in a mid-term election. And with the current President facing impeachment hearings, Republicans were predicting that they would make huge gains in both Houses of Congress. Instead, they failed to pick up a single Senate seat and actually lost five seats in the House. The loss of House seats was the first time the President's Party has gained in a mid-term election in 64 years. There were many factors that account for the Democrat's stunning success - chief among them a good economy and the public's disgust with Republican handling of the impeachment inquiry. But immigration politics were important in deciding a number of races.

The Republicans were basically silent on immigration matters during the 1998 campaigns. This is in stark contrast to the past few elections where Republicans played on fears of immigration using Proposition 187, the 1996 Immigration Act and other bills as "wedges" to push white and black voters away from the Democratic Party. One sign of the change this year was the post-election reaction of anti-immigration advocacy group FAIR - The Federation for American Immigration Reform. FAIR issued a press release criticizing Republicans for their "unilateral abandoning of its most potent issue, immigration." In the few instances where Republicans spoke out on immigration matters, it was mainly to emphasize that they were PRO-IMMIGRATION.

Why the change of heart? Electoral reality. New Americans, particularly the very large Hispanic population, are becoming a greater portion of the electorate. Foreign-born populations are concentrated in states with the most electoral votes - California, New York, Texas, Florida and Illinois - making their votes even more important. Republicans are beginning to realize that the short term goal of playing the immigration card against their Democratic beginning to hurt them. Hispanic votes are voting in greater numbers than ever, electing more of their own candidates in both parties and punishing candidates with real or perceived anti-immigration records. More often than not, the punished candidates are Republicans.

The most prominent examples of new Hispanic voting power were the California races. Republicans have held the gubernatorial seat in the Golden State for sixteen years. Hispanic voters had a number of reasons to be angry with Republicans this year, however. Outgoing Governor Pete Wilson led the charge for Proposition 187, a measure that makes illegal aliens eligible for any public benefits, as well as the abolition of affirmative action in the state. Hispanics deserted Wilson during his last election race in 1994, but could not muster the votes to help the Democratic candidate win. This year, with larger numbers they were able to push Democrat Gray Davis to victory over Republican Attorney General Dan Lungren. Lungren's close ties to Wilson were clearly one reason he had trouble with Hispanic voters. Davis topped Lungren in the Hispanic community by a margin of 78 to 18 percent.

Democratic Senator Barbera Boxer was locked in a very tough re-election battle with Republican Matt Fong. Boxer received a commanding 72 percent of the Hispanic vote, a number that is credited with pushing her over the top.

Newly elected Lieutenant Governor Cruz Bustamante, a Democrat, became the first Latino candidate to win statewide election in more than 100 years in California. And Latino candidates picked up six more seats in the state's Legislature.

One race that was perhaps the best example of changing electoral demographics in California was the Orange County rematch of Democratic Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, a Latina, against Bob Dornan. Two years ago, Sanchez beat Dornan by a mere 984 votes. Readers may recall that the election was contested by Dornan who argued that non-citizen Hispanic voters were unlawfully registered to vote in the race. Sanchez won this year by an overwhelming margin.

Not all Republicans did poorly with Hispanic voters. Texas Governor George W. Bush, son of the former President and a leading contender for the 2000 Presidential nomination of his party, has strong support from Hispanics. Bush has actively courted the Hispanic vote and has an impressive pro-immigration record. Polls before the election were showing Bush with a 58 to 25 percent lead over his opponent for the Texas Governor's seat. Bush's brother Jeb won the governor's election in Florida also due in part to strong support from the state's Latin voters.

Bush's most likely opponent in the 2000 election, Vice President Al Gore, also has started to devote considerable time to courting the immigrant vote. In the days prior to the election, Gore and President Clinton campaigned heavily in the Hispanic community and conducted several interviews with Hispanic reporters. The two promised Hispanic voters they would support a more generous immigration policy and push for a "fair census" in 2000 that will accurately count Hispanics in this country.

So what does this mean for the next session of Congress? Unless the economy plunges and Republicans decide to blame immigrants, Anti-immigration Republicans are likely to find themselves more and more isolated and pro-immigration legislation is likely to stand a better chance of getting approved. Evidence of this trend was seen this past year in the House's Immigration Subcommittee, chaired by vocal anti-immigrant Congressman Lamar Smith (R-TX). Smith's controversial standing in his own party became quite clear during the H-1B debate this past session. Smith fought a very public battle with the Republican leadership in an attempt to basically kill the H-1B program. And several important bills were passed only because key Republicans were able to attach them to bills that did not pass through Smith's committee.

Republican leaders have already turned the tables on anti-immigration Senators. Senate Immigration Subcommittee Chairman Spencer Abraham has taken a much more open-minded approach to immigration matters than Lamar Smith (not to mention his anti-immigrant predecessor, retired Senator Alan Simpson.

Following the November 3rd election, House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the most visible Republican in the country, resigned his seat. The position is highly powerful and the choice of his successor, Robert Livingston, could have a big impact on immigration legislation. The good news is that of the half dozen candidates for the Speaker's seat, Livingston has the most pro-immigration record. But Livingston is not exactly favor of open borders. He has voted in favor of various immigration bills over the years that anti-immigration advocates have supported.

In the past, he voted to extend Section 245i of the Immigration and Nationality Act, a measure that allows immigrants to pay a penalty and process their green cards in the US as opposed to having to consular process. He voted to save the adult children immigration categories when they were threatened in 1996. He has not co-sponsored bills to cut legal immigration numbers. He voted in favor of raising the H-1B cap and in expanding the Visa Waiver Pilot Program. On the other hand, he voted in 1990 to put a cap on overall immigration and this year supported H.R. 1428 and in 1996 voted against a bill to create a new agricultural guest worker program. And he voted with the majority to pass the largely anti-immigrant 1996 Immigration Act.