Doctor Shortage Predicted for Aging Baby-Boomers

The current doctor shortage that is facing the United States is expected to get worse before it gets better, according to a recent article in USA Today.  Several new studies have shown that the shortage will worsen as 79 million baby boomers reach retirement age and demand more medical care unless the nation starts producing more doctors.

The predictions for a doctor shortage seem to come as a surprise to the medical profession.  For the past 25 years, the American Medical Association (AMA) and other industry groups have predicted an excess of doctors and worked to limit the number of new physicians.  In 1994, the Journal of the American Medical Association predicted a surplus of 165,000 doctors by 2000.  However, the AMA has abandoned its position that a surplus exists or is expected in the near future.

Congress controls the supply of physicians by how much federal funding it provides for medical residencies.  In 1997, to save money and prevent a doctor overflow, Congress capped the number of residents that Medicare will pay for at about 80,000 a year.  Veterans Administration and Medicaid finance another 20,000 residents.  Teaching hospitals pay for a small number of residents without government assistance. 

Medicare estimates show that the portion of U.S. income spent on health care rose from 8.8% in 1980 to 15.4% in 2004 and will reach 18.7% in 2014, indicating a need for more physicians.  The retirement of baby boom physicians means the number of doctors will start falling just as the first baby boomer turns 70 in 2016, according to a study by the Association of American Medical Colleges.

USA Today stated that the United States needs to train 3,000 to 10,000 more physicians a year - up from the current 25,000 - to meet the growing medical needs of the nation.  Because it takes 10 years to train a doctor, the nation will have a shortage of 85,000 to 200,000 doctors in 2020 unless action is taken soon.

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