The Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) has recently issued a report on the physician shortage through the year 2025.  According to the report, by 2025 there will be a shortage of 124,000 to 159,300 physicians.  Due to a number of factors, such as population growth and aging, demand for physicians will outpace the supply of physicians.  The AAMC declares that providing more educational and training opportunities for physicians will not be enough to address these shortages. 

According to the report, even though the supply of physicians is projected to increase between now and 2025, the demand for physicians is projected to increase even more sharply.  The US Census Bureau projects that the US population will grow by more than 50 million (to 350 million) between 2006 and 2025. This factor alone is likely to lead to a substantial increase in the demand for physician services. 

The report also states that physician shortages are likely to be seen in a number of ways, including longer wait times for appointments, increased travel to get care, shorter appointments with physicians, expanded use of non-physicians for care and higher prices.

According to the AAMC, a 30 percent expansion in medical school enrollment and an increase in graduate medical education positions will not eliminate the shortage.  An increase in the number of physicians must also include other actions, such as changes in how physician services are delivered, in order to address the shortage. 

The report declares that there are several factors that could worsen the shortage significantly over the next few years.  These factors include if the US does not implement significant healthcare delivery system reforms and/or improve healthcare efficiency and effectiveness, or if the US implements universal health coverage, or if the flow of foreign medical graduates slows significantly. 

The AAMC report makes the following suggestions: 

• The US should continue to promote an increase in medical school capacity and the availability of graduate medical education positions as part of a broad strategy to address physician shortages;

• The US should promote efforts to more effectively use the limited number of physicians through the use of non-physician clinicians and other health professionals, and to improve physician productivity;

• Recognize and respond to physician life-style concerns, such as promoting flexible scheduling.  Given the large number of physicians over age 55, their decisions as to retirement will have an enormous impact on the number of physicians in the US. 

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